Net zero risk register

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5. Assumption that we can rely on offsetting

Risk Title and Description

Assumption that we can rely on offsetting (e.g. tree planting) to achieve net zero.

Service: All City Council Departments

Date identified: 15 June 2022

Owner: Executive

Target implementation date: 2030

Potential Causes:

  • Offsetting should only be used where emissions are unavoidable
  • The effectiveness of carbon offsetting relies on the availability of high quality schemes to reduce carbon emissions. Carbon offset projects should use the 'Good Quality’ criteria provided in Government guidance on environmental reporting
  • Decarbonisation of the electricity grid reduces the grid electricity emission factor, diminishing potential offsets from exporting renewable energy

 

Potential Impacts:

  • High expenditure to fulfil potential offsetting needed to meet net zero
  • Additional planting of trees cause land use change, removing play areas and other valued land use
  • Tree planting can reduce surface water run off, improve air quality, biodiversity and cooling
  • City Council unable to achieve net zero by 2030

 

Existing Mitigations & Control

What has been done to control the risk?

  • 2020/21 Corporate Carbon Footprint Report set outs definitions of quality criteria needed for offset projects and to use where emissions are unavoidable
  • i-Tree eco report completed which explores Exeter's trees' potential to influence net zero balances
  • Costed organisational carbon descent report by Centre for Energy and Environment reviews Net Zero 2030 target and provides 3 scenarios for decarbonisation, including options for offsetting
  • Trees planted annually as part of ongoing tree planting programme and woodland creation projects
  • Offsets generated from exported renewable energy on solar PV installed across the corporate estate

 

Further Mitigations & Controls to be put into place

  • P&GS and Planning working on Local Infrastructure Plan which will allocate land for offsetting, Suitable Alternative Natural Greenspaces (SANGs) and Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG)
  • Ensure Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions reductions remain a priority before considering offsetting

 

Notes

Costed organisational carbon descent report by Centre for Energy and Environment reviews Net Zero 2030 target and provides 3 scenarios for decarbonisation, including options for offsetting.

 

Risk scores

Inherent risk
Risk Score
Likelihood 3
Impact 3
Risk score 9

 

Residual risk
Risk Score
Likelihood 2
Impact 2
Risk score 4

 

Risk scores explained